Population growth forecasts rise in crib sales

Population growth forecasts rise in crib sales

by Daphne Garland-McLean -- Kids Today, 1/1/2010 12:00:00 AM

A double-digit gain in crib sales is expected in the U.S. over the next five years according to the most recent forecasts by New York-based Easy Analytic Software Inc. (EASI). According to the data, crib sales will increase from $863 million in 2009 to $984 million in 2014. That's an increase of 14%!

EASI's exclusive figures are based on expected changes in population within the various regions, along with their accompanying shifts in income. However, local economic conditions, such as unemployment or store closings are not taken into account. The figures also assume a national rate of inflation that does not vary from one location to another.

Regional growth

When looking at crib sales by region, the West, which accounts for 22% of total U.S. crib sales, topped the list with an expected growth of 16.34% — surpassing the South's growth projection by a slim percentage. The South is forecasted to grow by 16.29% from $321.5 million in crib sales to $373.9 million by the year 2014. And, though not the fastest in crib sales growth, this region does make up 38% of total crib sales. According to the estimates, the Midwest, which accounts for another 22% of crib sales, will increase by 11.4% and the Northeast will have a positive change of 9.8%. The Northeast comprises 18% of all crib sales.

A closer look

Twenty-one states are projected to exceed the national growth average in crib sales, with the majority of those states, 12, representing the West. Eight states in the South are expected to grow faster than the national average and one state in the Midwest is expected to have crib sales growth above the nation. And, while there are no states in the Northeast with anticipated growth above the nation's average of 14%, there are several states in this region that are poised to experience growth of 10% or more over the next five years.

EASI's data shows all but one Western state, California, will exceed the national average. And, four of those states are expecting growth of more than 20%. Nevada with an anticipated growth rate of 24.6% is expected to have the greatest increase in the West, and is expected to grow faster than any other state in the nation. Arizona is expecting crib sales growth of 24.0%, while Utah's crib sales are expected to increase by 21.2%. Idaho rounds out the Western states that have growth potential of more than 20%, with projected growth of 20.6%.

In the South, Georgia, Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina are expected to be the fastest-growing states. If EASI's data holds true, Georgia can expect growth of 19.3% by the year 2014, while both Texas and North Carolina are likely to see crib sales growth of 19.1% during the same time period. Crib sales in South Carolina are projected grow by 17.4%.

South Dakota in the Midwest, with an expected 14.2%, leads the region in forecasted crib sales growth. And, though they do not exceed the national average, Minnesota, Indiana and Nebraska are all expecting growth to hover around 13%.

The Northeast's New Hampshire is expecting to increase crib sales by 12.5% over the next five years, advancing from $3.9 million in 2009 to $4.3 million in 2014. Maine, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Vermont and New Jersey are looking forward to growth within the 10% range for the same time-frame.

Metro outlook

An overall look at the 25 fastest-growing metros reveals 17 out of the 25 are large metros, with core populations greater than 50,000, and eight are small metros, with core populations between 10,000 and 50,000. With a 42.2% growth projection for crib sales, Palm Coast, Fla., a large metro, tops the chart when looking at this data segment. Not far behind is Fernley, Nev., a small metro. The Nevada metro can expect to have ample growth, a forecast of 35.0%, over the next five years if EASI's predictions remain intact. Other metros expecting a liberal dose of growth — above 30% — by 2014 include St. George, Utah and The Villages, Fla. Each expects to garner increases of 34.9% and 34.2%, respectively. Noticeably, all of the 25 fastest-growing are in the West and the South.

25 fastest-growing metros for cribs
in $ thousands

	2009 ESTIMATED	2014 PROJECTED	PERCENT CHANGE
Palm Coast, Fla.	$277.0	$394.0	42.2%
Fernley, Nev.	143.0	193.0	35.0
St. George, Utah	327.0	441.0	34.9
The Villages, Fla.	225.0	302.0	34.2
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	3,354.0	4,327.0	29.0
Cedar City, Utah	101.0	130.0	28.7
Heber, Utah	49.0	63.0	28.6
Bend, Ore.	453.0	582.0	28.5
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.	766.0	980.0	27.9
Greeley, Colo.	647.0	826.0	27.7
Pahrump, Nev.	127.0	162.0	27.6
Austin-Round Rock, Texas	4,853.0	6,173.0	27.2
Bozeman, Mont.	275.0	349.0	26.9
Culpeper, Va.	134.0	170.0	26.9
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.	1,856.0	2,353.0	26.8
Gainesville, Ga.	467.0	592.0	26.8
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.	5,250.0	6,646.0	26.6
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.	11,877.0	15,030.0	26.5
Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C.	5,081.0	6,411.0	26.2
Provo-Orem, Utah	1,111.0	1,399.0	25.9
Boise City-Nampa, Idaho	1,625.0	2,045.0	25.8
Statesville-Mooresville, N.C.	440.0	552.0	25.5
Prescott, Ariz.	639.0	797.0	24.7
Coeur d'Alene, Idaho	373.0	465.0	24.7
Wilmington, N.C.	1,075.0	1,339.0	24.6

Regional growth projections
in $ millions

	2009 ESTIMATED	2014 PROJECTED	PERCENT CHANGE
States in bold are expected to grow crib sales faster than the national average of 14.0% between 2009 and 2014.
in the Northeast
New Hampshire	$3.9	$4.3	12.5%
Maine	3.9	4.3	10.7
Connecticut	10.5	11.6	10.5
Pennsylvania	36.5	40.3	10.4
Vermont	1.8	2.0	10.4
New Jersey	24.6	27.2	10.4
Massachusetts	19.6	21.5	9.7
New York	55.7	60.7	9.0
Rhode Island	3.1	3.4	7.7
Total Northeast	159.6	175.3	9.8
	2009 ESTIMATED	2014 PROJECTED	PERCENT CHANGE
in the Midwest
South Dakota	$2.3	$2.6	14.2%
Minnesota	15.3	17.3	13.1
Indiana	18.4	20.8	13.0
Nebraska	5.2	5.8	12.9
Kansas	8.2	9.2	12.6
Missouri	17.2	19.4	12.5
Wisconsin	16.4	18.5	12.4
Iowa	8.9	9.9	12.0
Illinois	36.4	40.6	11.7
North Dakota	1.9	2.1	10.5
Ohio	33.3	36.6	9.8
Michigan	28.4	30.9	8.8
Total Midwest	191.9	213.8	11.4
	2009 ESTIMATED	2014 PROJECTED	PERCENT CHANGE
in the South
Georgia	$27.3	$32.6	19.3%
Texas	65.9	78.5	19.1
North Carolina	27.3	32.5	19.1
South Carolina	13.1	15.4	17.4
Florida	54.2	63.4	17.0
Delaware	2.6	3.0	16.4
Tennessee	18.1	20.9	15.1
Virginia	23.2	26.6	14.7
Arkansas	8.1	9.3	13.9
Louisiana	12.5	14.2	13.5
Oklahoma	10.6	12.0	13.2
Kentucky	12.4	14.0	13.1
Alabama	13.7	15.4	12.8
Mississippi	8.2	9.2	11.7
Maryland	16.7	18.6	11.5
District of Columbia	2.2	2.5	9.6
West Virginia	5.2	5.7	9.6
Total South	321.5	373.9	16.3
	2009 ESTIMATED	2014 PROJECTED	PERCENT CHANGE
in the West
Nevada	$7.4	$9.2	24.6%
Arizona	18.0	22.3	24.0
Utah	6.4	7.8	21.2
Idaho	4.0	4.9	20.6
Colorado	14.5	17.1	18.0
Washington	18.9	22.1	16.6
Oregon	10.8	12.5	16.5
New Mexico	5.4	6.2	15.5
Wyoming	1.6	1.8	15.3
Montana	2.8	3.2	14.4
Hawaii	3.3	3.7	14.2
Alaska	1.9	2.2	14.1
California	95.1	108.2	13.7
Total West	190.0	221.0	16.3
Total All	$863.0	$984.0	14.0%