Gear sales projected to grow during 5-year period

By the numbers

by Daphne Garland-McLean -- Kids Today, 7/1/2009 12:00:00 AM

Statisticians at Easy Analytic Software, Inc., based in New York, predict spending on infant gear to increase by 12.7% by the year 2013. According to EASI, estimated sales in 2008 reached $1.66 billion and are expected to reach $1.86 billion within the next five years. For this data, EASI based their forecasts on changes in population within the various regions as well as their accompanying shifts in income. Local economic changes within the varying metropolitan areas due to store or plant closings or national economic conditions such as the credit crunch or housing crisis are not taken into account in their calculations.

Regions

The greatest growth projections for infant gear are found in the most populous regions of the country, the South and the West. Infant gear sales in the South are projected to grow by 15.3% between 2008 and 2013. In the West, a 14.7% growth rate is expected during the same time period. Lagging behind, the Northeast and Midwest are both forecasted to reach growth of less than 10% by 2013. If EASI projections hold, the Northeast will grow by only 8.5% and the Midwest by 9.7%.

States

A look at the state data reveals that 22 states meet or exceed the national average for infant gear sales growth. Among the fastest-growing states, Nevada tops the list with an expected 24% growth rate followed closely by Arizona with a 23.1% growth rate. Idaho, at 19% growth, and Utah, at 18.5%, round out the top four states that exceed the national growth average of 12.7%. Noticeably, all four are in the Western region. However, behind the overall top four states, are four Southern states — Georgia, Texas, North Carolina and Florida. These states have growth rates that range from 18% to 17.1%. In fact, all states anticipating growth above the national average are located in the previously mentioned regions, the West and the South.

Two of the states expecting growth below the national average are two of the largest in terms of population. California, the only state in the West to dip below the national average, is expecting to grow its infant gear sales by 12% over the five-year span and New York, in the Northeast, is predicted to have sales growth of only 7.5% during the same time frame.

Top 10 largest metro markets

By EASI estimates, the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa., and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif., metro markets will have two of the lowest growth rates among the top 10 largest metro markets for gear sales dollars. Though sales dollars are plentiful, the Greater New York metro expects to grow by only 7.8% from $99.7 million in 2008 to $107.5 million in 2013. The Greater Los Angeles metro expects to grow by 8.5% by 2013. Six of the largest metros with regards to gear sales dollars will reach double-digit growth over the next five years, though only four — Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga., Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas and Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W. Va., — are expecting growth to exceed the national average. Among these four, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga., is projected to grow the fastest with a 21.1% rate of growth.

Large metros

Among the large metros, those with core populations greater than 50,000, the Palm Coast, Fla., metro area tops the growth chart expectations meter when it comes to gear sales growth. With a growth rate of 45.6% projected to be reached within the next five years, not only is this metro the fastest-growing large metro in the South, this metro is predicted to be the overall fastest-growing metro area in the country. Other fast-growing large metros include St. George, Utah, with a 35% growth rate, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., at 29.6%, Raleigh-Cary, N.C., at 28%, and Bend, Ore., at a 27.9% expected growth rate. And, though not at the top of the overall list of fast-growing metros, Sioux Falls, S.D., is forecasted to grow faster than any large metro for the Midwest region. The York-Hanover, Pa. metro is expected to show the greatest growth among large metros in the Northeast.

Small metros

Fernley, Nev., at 36.7% anticipated growth, The Villages, Fla., at 34.2%, Pahrump, Nev., at 30.3%, Culpeper, Va., at 28.6% and Cedar City, Utah, at 27.8% are the top five fastest-growing small metros, those with core populations of less than 50,000. Small metros making their mark in the Northeast and Midwest include East Stroudsburg, Pa., with a projected 18.3% growth rate and Branson, Mo., with an estimated increase in gear sales of 17.8%.

Regional growth projections
Consumer spending in $ millions
The five fastest-growing markets in the Northeast

Among large markets	2008 estimated	2013 projected	Percent change
York-Hanover, Pa.	$2.4	$2.7	16.2%
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.	4.5	5.1	14.4
Reading, Pa.	2.2	2.5	13.7
Lebanon, Pa.	0.7	0.8	13.5
Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, N.J.	0.8	0.9	13.3
Among small markets
East Stroudsburg, Pa.	$0.9	$1.0	18.3%
Chambersburg, Pa.	0.8	0.9	15.7
Lewisburg, Pa.	0.3	0.3	15.0
Gettysburg, Pa.	0.5	0.6	14.7
Willimantic, Conn.	0.6	0.7	13.1

In the Midwest

Among large markets	2008 estimated	2013 projected	Percent change
Sioux Falls, S.D.	$1.3	$1.6	19.9%
Springfield, Mo.	2.4	2.9	18.4
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa	3.2	3.8	17.6
Columbia, Mo.	1.0	1.2	16.8
Fargo, N.D.-Minn.	1.2	1.4	16.3
Among small markets
Branson, Mo.	$0.4	$0.5	17.8%
Farmington, Mo.	0.3	0.4	17.1
Alexandria, Minn.	0.2	0.2	15.2
Lebanon, Mo.	0.2	0.2	15.1
Spearfish, S.D.	0.1	0.2	14.7

In the South

Among large markets	2008 estimated	2013 projected	Percent change
Palm Coast, Fla.	$0.5	$0.7	45.6%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.	3.3	4.3	29.6
Raleigh-Cary, N.C.	6.7	8.6	28.0
Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C.	1.4	1.8	27.3
Austin-Round Rock, Texas	9.5	11.9	25.2
Among small markets
The Villages, Fla.	$0.4	$0.5	34.2%
Culpeper, Va.	0.3	0.3	28.6
Statesville-Mooresville, N.C.	0.9	1.1	23.8
Lake City, Fla.	0.4	0.5	22.9
Picayune, Miss.	0.3	0.4	22.7

In the West

Among large markets	2008 estimated	2013 projected	Percent change
Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Kids Today market research
St. George, Utah	$0.6	$0.9	35.0%
Bend, Ore.	0.9	1.1	27.9
Greeley, Colo.	1.3	1.6	26.1
Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.	9.9	12.5	26.0
Prescott, Ariz.	1.2	1.5	25.8
Among small markets
Fernley, Nev.	$0.3	$0.4	36.7%
Pahrump, Nev.	0.2	0.3	30.3
Cedar City, Utah	0.2	0.3	27.8
Heber, Utah	0.1	0.1	26.5
Bozeman, Mont.	0.5	0.7	26.5

Top 10 largest metro markets for gear
Consumer spending in $ millions

	2008 estimated	2013 projected	Percent change
Metros in bold are expected to exceed the national average in sales growth between 2008 and 2013. Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Kids Today market research
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.	$99.7	$107.5	7.8%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.	60.1	65.3	8.5
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.	51.8	57.1	10.4
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas	34.9	42.0	20.3
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.	32.8	36.0	9.7
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-W. Va.	32.0	36.1	13.0
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.	31.5	38.1	21.1
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas	30.4	36.3	19.5
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.	29.2	32.7	12.1
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass.-N.H.	25.7	27.8	8.1

Gear sales by state
in $ millions

State	2008 estimated	2013 projected	Percent change
States in bold are expected to exceed the national average in sales growth between 2008 and 2013. Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Kids Today market research
Alabama	$26.5	$29.7	11.8%
Alaska	3.7	4.2	13.5
Arizona	33.8	41.6	23.1
Arkansas	15.7	17.7	12.7
California	178.6	200.0	12.0
Colorado	28.2	32.7	16.2
Connecticut	20.0	21.9	9.5
Delaware	5.0	5.8	15.5
District of Columbia	4.2	4.5	7.8
Florida	101.5	118.9	17.1
Georgia	55.3	65.3	18.0
Hawaii	4.8	5.4	12.8
Idaho	8.0	9.5	19.0
Illinois	70.7	77.7	9.9
Indiana	36.0	40.0	11.2
Iowa	16.9	18.6	10.0
Kansas	15.8	17.5	10.7
Kentucky	23.9	26.7	11.8
Louisiana	23.9	26.9	12.8
Maine	7.3	8.0	9.7
Maryland	32.7	36.3	10.8
Massachusetts	36.6	39.5	8.0
Michigan	56.1	60.5	7.7
Minnesota	29.5	32.9	11.5
Mississippi	16.1	17.7	10.3
Missouri	33.3	37.0	11.1
Montana	5.2	5.9	13.1
Nebraska	10.0	11.1	11.0
Nevada	13.9	17.3	24.0
New Hampshire	7.5	8.3	11.5
New Jersey	47.0	51.4	9.3
New Mexico	10.1	11.5	14.6
New York	103.9	111.6	7.5
North Carolina	53.7	63.2	17.5
North Dakota	3.6	4.0	9.1
Ohio	64.9	70.1	8.0
Oklahoma	20.1	22.5	12.0
Oregon	20.5	23.4	14.6
Pennsylvania	69.0	75.3	9.2
Rhode Island	5.8	6.2	6.9
South Carolina	25.7	29.7	15.8
South Dakota	4.4	4.9	12.1
Tennessee	35.2	40.1	13.9
Texas	128.4	151.2	17.8
Utah	13.0	15.4	18.5
Vermont	3.5	3.8	8.9
Virginia	45.5	51.7	13.7
Washington	35.7	40.9	14.5
West Virginia	9.7	10.6	8.7
Wisconsin	31.6	34.9	10.4
Wyoming	2.9	3.3	13.2
Total	$1,655.0	$1,865.0	12.7%