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Infant gear sales forecasted to rise 12.7% by 2014

By the numbers

By Daphne Garland-McLean -- Kids Today, 2/1/2010 12:00:00 AM

Infant gear sales will grow 12.7% over the next five years according to the latest forecasts from Easy Analytic Software Inc. (EASI), based in New York. That’s a jump from an estimated $1.5 billion in 2009 up to $1.7 billion in 2014.

Spending growth will increase the most in Arizona. This state expects a growth rate of 22.95% just edging out Nevada for the nation’s top-most rank. Nevada will increase in infant gear sales by 22.94% during the five-year period if EASI’s predictions bear out.

In all, 17 states, including Arizona and Nevada, are predicted to grow faster than the national average of 12.7%. Utah is expected to grow by 19.3%, while Idaho, Georgia and Texas all anticipate growth in the 18% range. Colorado expects to increase infant gear sales by 17.0% and North Carolina will likely see growth of 16.5%, growing from $41.8 million in 2009 to $48.7 million in 2014. Washington, Oregon, Hawaii and Florida will all hover around a 15% growth rate. South Carolina will improve its gear sales by 13.9% and New Mexico and Tennessee both expect growth at a rate of 13.2%. California, the state with the largest dollar volume of infant gear sales, is expected to increase by 13.0% by 2014 to $218.1 million from $193.0 million in 2009. And although Delaware will trail behind other fast-growing states, it will exceed the national average of 12.7% by a slim margin, with 12.75% expected growth.

When looking at the nation’s 939 metropolitan areas, about one-quarter of them are on target to exceed the national average in infant gear sales growth with metros in the South and West leading the way. In fact, the South’s Palm Coast, Fla. metro will experience the greatest amount of growth per EASI statisticians’ predictions. This metro is expected to reach a growth rate of 36.7% over the five-year span placing it in the lead for growth in the country as well as the chart-topper for the Southern region. Following the Palm Coast metro will be the Fernley, Nev., and St. George, Utah, metros, both located in the West. Both of these areas are expected to achieve growth of over 30%, making them growth-leaders for their respective region. Other Southern front-runners, The Villages, Fla., metro will grow by 29.6% during the five-year period and the greater Raleigh, N.C. area is expected to increase in infant gear sales by 28.3%. The Austin, Texas metro anticipates sales of $11.7 million by 2014, an increase of 27.6% over 2009’s $9.2 million.

Reviewing the 25 fastest-growing metros reveals four metros are located in Utah; three each are in the states of Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. And if EASI’s forecasts hold true, Arizona, Georgia and Idaho will each be home to two of the fastest-growing metros in the nation. Texas, Colorado, Oregon, Montana, South Carolina and Virginia are expected to have one each of the 25 fastest-growing metros. Overall, 14 out of the 25 fastest-growing metros hail from the West and 11 stem from the South. Evaluated by volume of sales, the greater Phoenix metro area in the West and the greater Atlanta area in the South, are both expected to hit close to the $30 million mark over the five-year period, 2009-2014. The Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. metro will grow its infant gear sales to $28.6 million by 2014, an increase of 25.9% over $22.7 million in 2009. The Atlanta metro will improve its sales from $24.3 million in 2009 to $29.7 million in 2014.

Two metro areas that fall just outside of the top 25 are Sioux Falls, S.D. and the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.-Mo. metro. Both of these areas are poised to grow by 21.3% during the next five years. Two additional metros of interest due to their sales volume amount include the greater New York City area with expected growth from $96.4 million in 2009 to $104.3 million in 2014 and the Los Angeles metro that expects to generate $71.0 million in infant gear sales in 2014. And while these two metros rake in large scale sales, their growth for the period will be less than 10%.

EASI’s exclusive estimates and projections are based on expected changes in population within the various regions, with their accompanying shifts in income. The figures do not take into account local economic changes such as store closings or national economic changes such as the housing and financial crisis. They also assume inflation rates will be even nationally.

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