Number of babies born rises slightly in '04

There were 4.1 million births in 2004, about 1% more than in 2003. The 2004 crude birth rate, 14.0 births per 1,000 total population, was 1% lower than in 2003. The crude birth rate measures the number of live births per 1,000 total population. The general fertility rate in 2004, however, was up slightly from the rate in 2003, to 66.3. The fertility rate refers to the number of births per 1,000 women between the ages of 15 and 44, generally considered the prime child-bearing years. It's an important number to look at because it's a predictor of future patterns of growth in the marketplace. Areas with higher fertility rates are more likely to see higher birth rates — and be better prospects for selling kids items in the future. The map to the right shows which states have fertility rates significantly higher than the national average of 66.3.

The total fertility rate (TFR) rose slightly in 2004 compared with 2003. The TFR summarizes the potential impact of current fertility patterns on completed family size to estimate the average number of births that a hypothetical group of 1,000 women would have over their lifetimes. The TFR by race and Hispanic origin increased for only two groups in 2004. The total fertility rate increased by 1% for both Asian/Pacific Island and Hispanic women. The total fertility rate for non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white women fell between 2003 and 2004, and the rate for American Indian women was essentially unchanged.

Most states saw little change in their fertility rates from 2003. Only New Jersey had a decline in its fertility rate. Rates were lowest in Vermont and highest in Utah.

Analysts at Washington, D.C.-based Child Trends, which carefully tracks data concerning children, points out that fertility rates have remained relatively stable since 1980, ranging between 64 and 71 births per 1,000 women. But their analysis shows wide variations among age and ethnic groups that give important clues to kids marketers.

From 1980 to 2004 fertility rates have

• declined substantially among non-Hispanic blacks, from 91 to 67;
• declined slightly among non-Hispanic whites from 62 to 59;
• increased among Hispanics from 95 in 1980 to 108 in 1990 before declining to 93 in 1998, and increasing again to 98 in 2004;
• increased among women between the ages of 30 to 34 from 62 to 96;
• decreased among women under age 25 from 115 to 102.

Childbearing by women in their early twenties showed a slight decline in 2004. The birth rate for women between 20 and 24 decreased 1%, to 101.8 births per 1,000 women in 2004, the lowest rate ever reported. The rate for women between 25 and 29 years was essentially unchanged in 2004 (115.5), but remained the highest rate among the age groups.

Birth rates for women between 20 and 24 years fell 1% for non-Hispanic black women and 2% for non-Hispanic white women, but increased 1% for Hispanic women. The rates for American Indian and Asian Pacific Islander women were essentially unchanged in 2004. Birth rates for women between 25 and 29 years decreased only for non-Hispanic white women. The rate for Hispanic women rose by 1% and was essentially unchanged for the other groups.

Births to older women continue to increase. From 2003 to 2004, the birth rate for women between 30 and 34 years increased less than 1%, while the birth rate for women between 35 and 39 years rose by 4%. The birth rate for women 40 and 44 increased 3%, to 9.0, and the rate for women between 45 and 49 increased in 2004 to 0.6 births per 1,000 women.

First-birth rates for women between 35 and 39 and 40 and 44 showed sizable increases between 2003 and 2004. In 2004, the first-birth rate was 26.4 first births per 1,000 women between 15 and 44 years, down only marginally from 26.5 births in 2003. Changes by maternal age from 2003 and 2004 were small, except for rates for women between 35 and 39 and 40 and 44 years. The birth rate increased by 3% for 35- to 39-year-olds; and 5% for 40- to 44 year-olds.

In 2004, the crude birth rate (which measures the number in relation to the total population) varied widely among the states, ranging from 10.6 in Maine and Vermont to 21.2 in Utah. Only 10 states had significant declines in the crude birth rates: Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Rhode Island. The only state with an increasing crude birth rate was Virginia. The District of Columbia also had an increased crude birth rate.

The highest birth rate was among women between the ages of 25 and 29.