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Top 10 account for 26% of youth bedroom sales

-- Kids Today, 4/1/2008

The nation's 10 largest metros for youth bedroom sales will lag the nation's overall sales growth ever so slightly, according to EASI's sales projections. The 10 will grow by 23.1% over the next five years, versus 23.5% for the nation as a whole.

Even so, they will account for about 26% of the country's sales of youth bedroom furniture.

Of the 10 metros, five, all in the South, will exceed the national average in sales growth, according to EASI's projections.

Among these super metros, three are tied for the top position in terms of growth: in Texas, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington and Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land; and in Georgia, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta. All three are expected to grow youth bedroom sales by 32% between 2007 and 2012, according to Easy Analytic Software's models.

The huge New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. market is expected to grow at about half that rate (18.6%), but it will still hold onto its top spot in 2012. In fact, EASI estimates it will still account for slightly more than 6% of the nation's youth bedroom sales in 2012.

The Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. and Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. markets, also expected to lag behind the national average in sales growth, will also hold onto their second and third place positions, according to EASI statisticians. The greater Los Angeles market accounts for nearly 4% of the country's youth bedroom sales and the greater Chicago market, just over 3%.

 

Behind the numbers

Kids Today market research worked with Easy Analytic Software Inc. to develop sales estimates and projections for youth bedroom furniture and cribs and other nursery furniture. Sister publication Furniture/Today also developed estimates and projections for other furniture categories.

The 2007 sales estimates for each product category are based on data available through August 2007 and are subject to revision as additional data become available. Estimates are based on information from the Department of Commerce, the International Trade Commission, sales estimates from manufacturers and retailers, Furniture/Today's Consumer Buying Trends surveys, the Furniture Store Performance Report and discussions with industry executives and analysts.

Segment figures were aggregated by Furniture/Today and statisticians at EASI. EASI matched demographic data (such as age and income) gathered by Furniture/Today's Consumer Buying Trends survey against other data sources such as the Bureau of the Census, the Department of Justice, the National Center for Education Statistics and the Department of Labor. EASI then uses a series of statistical models to develop estimates by metro markets.

EASI's highly accurate models are regression curves based upon a variety of factors designed to forecast changes that include growth and the interrelationship of variables. Projections for 2012 are designed to forecast the changes that statistically adjust for household income, age by race and sex, group quarter population and births and deaths, along with other forecasting factors.

Spending forecasts assume a national rate of inflation that does not vary from one location to another.

Data are given for Core-Based Statistical Areas (CBSA), defined as a geographic entity consisting of the county or counties containing one or more cores (urbanized areas or settlement clusters or both) that together have at least 10,000 population, plus adjacent counties having a high degree of social and economic integration with the core(s) measured through commuting patterns.

Within this broad definition, large metros, called Metropolitan Statistical Areas, have at least one urbanized area of 50,000 or more population. Small metros, called Micropolitan Statistical Areas, have at least one urban cluster with a population of at least 10,000, but less than 50,000. Both designations include adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core measured by commuting ties. The designations are mandated by the Office of Management and Budget and are used by government agencies for statistical reporting purposes.

Additional reports available

Sister publication Furniture/Today and Easy Analytic Software have also prepared sales estimates and projections for individual product categories in a series of Product Potential Reports. Each report gives estimated 2007 sales and projected 2012 sales figures for each specific product for 934 metropolitan areas. Each report also provides state-level data for the product. Reports are available for: master bedroom, casual dining, dining room furniture, entertainment furniture, curios, occasional tables, desks, other home office furniture, stationary sofas/sofa-sleepers, stationary chairs, reclining chairs, swivel/glider rockers, motion sofas, area rugs, lamps, wall décor and top-of-bed linens.

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