The juvenile business (other than toys) is not driven by holiday sales, by and large, so you may be in a stronger position than many retailers, because November and December are not make-or-break months.

That’s good, because the National Retail Federation forecasted sales during the last two months of the year to dip 1% from last year. But even so, Marshal Cohen, that group’s chief retail analyst, said, “I don’t think it’s going to be all doom and gloom. There’s a lot of pent-up demand among consumers.”

There are growing signs that Cohen may be right. An August poll by market research firm NPD said consumers are feeling more optimistic about the economy. Almost half of those polled said the economy is showing signs of stabilizing, while an additional 16% said the economy is getting a little stronger.

Small business owners are starting to feel more confidence too — with 58% saying they are confident in the future of their businesses, according to the National Small Business Association Mid-Year Report, which was released in July before much of the better economic news had really gotten a good footing.

Our own Dana French, director of research here at Kids Today and our sister publications, recently shared some new consumer data from a Citi poll that shows support for the belief that there’s now a “new normal” — meaning that frugality is here to stay and that consumers may not go back to previous spending levels. This is especially true for women and mothers. Women account for about 80% of all household spending, and 75% of polled mothers said their spending habits will never go back to pre-recession levels.

We take a look at many of the economic indicators and offer a preview of what may be to come in our By the Numbers report on page 8. And we checked in with our retailer advisory board for their 2010 outlook (page 20), including what drivers of growth they are pursuing for the year. Their answers are pretty insightful, especially paired with what the researchers and data have been telling us.

WSL Strategic Retail’s Oct. 29 'How America Shops’ report noted the trend toward smaller, better retailing is growing. Tightly edited selections that serve specific customer niches are more important than ever for stores. And, the experience matters.

“Shoppers continue to tell us they are looking for — and expect — easier, more efficient, customized ways to shop everyday,” the WSL report stated. “The current retail trend to smaller formats, more edited offerings, and more efficient ways to buy everything is one way retailers are addressing this. And that’s good. However … Let it be said here, the shopper truth is that less is not necessarily more. Cutting SKUs, reducing promotions, reducing the store footprint are not solutions unto themselves. The solutions to satisfying shoppers are: the right mix (for me), the right value (for me), the right experience (for me), when and how I (the shopper) need/want it.”

Who better to offer this than a specialty store? You are nimble and innovative enough that you can be the lead driver on this long path out of recession. It’s time to get going.